You may ask, why did the United States invite Minister Wan Gang to visit the Argonne Laboratory? This is because the United States has fallen far behind its competitors in this field, which is really incredible. The United States is a bit like Japan in the 1970s and China in the 1990s-at the bottom of the learning curve that other countries have experienced. Considering this status quo, the wisest development path is to cooperate with the world’s best colleagues, collect information from Minister Wan Gang and other VIP guests, and then work together to achieve success.
Americans have lingering fears about the global financial crises of 2008 and 2009, and they are determined to develop a new economy based on the material, not the cornerstone of finance, real estate, or the Internet bubble. Europeans have similar concerns and have decided to occupy a place in this new frontier field. In Asia, export-driven countries know that they have to find another way. Minister Wan Gang learned from historical experience that the discovery of basic technologies spawned by the global financial crisis has moved countries around the world. According to his observations, breakthrough technological changes have taken place in the field of energy technology today. Minister Wan Gang holds the same views as Americans and Europeans. He believes that powerful and reasonably priced batteries and electric vehicles will surely lead the next great economic prosperity. He said that people have underestimated the value of battery technology-China has already promoted the innovation of electronic equipment, and is preparing to apply this technology to more fields.
Some people’s focus is on the impact of the reformed battery on geopolitics. The battery era may weaken the demand in the oil market. Petroleum powers and oil organizations such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may therefore reduce their revenue by tens of billions of dollars, and then feel panic. China can further promote electric vehicles, reduce gasoline consumption, and reduce air pollution. In general, countries in the world are expected to reduce oil consumption and reduce their worries about environmental changes.
The data behind these initiatives is staggering. By 2020, the total annual global premium battery market is expected to be approximately US$25 billion, which is equivalent to half of Google’s total revenue in 2012. If the price of a barrel of oil in the future approaches or reaches triple digits, more and more car owners will abandon gasoline vehicles, and the global premium battery market may double. By 2020, the sales of battery-powered hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles are expected to reach 78 billion U.S. dollars. If large batteries can store the electricity generated by wind turbines and solar panels, the sales could increase by tens of billions of dollars each year.
Of course, these data are only for the next decade. The industry generally believes that after 2020, new industries will expand rapidly, reaching the scale of ExxonMobil, General Electric and Toyota Motor. These few high-value companies will be able to promote the vigorous development of the future economy. By 2030, advanced battery companies may evolve into an industry with an annual output value of 100 billion U.S. dollars, and the entire electric vehicle industry will be composed of several large companies with annual sales of 100 billion U.S. dollars.
If you want to find reasons for such optimistic expectations, you might as well listen to mainstream predictions-by 2020, hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles will account for 13% to 15% of global automobile production; in 10 to 20 years, this proportion will be Increase to about 50%. Previously, two types of best-selling consumer products, notebook computers and mobile phones, have continued their sales cycles of 20 and 30 years, respectively. Therefore, the above prediction seems to have some truth.
No matter how careful and meticulous the calculation process of these data is, the total value is still incredible, because no one can accurately predict market demand for products that have not yet been born. However, the leaders of most industrialized countries in the world, including Japan, South Korea, Brazil, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Malaysia, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, the United Kingdom, the United States and China, believe that this is a race. The reality is indeed the case. To borrow the words of a minister of the French government, this is “a battle for electric vehicles.”
In pursuing its own development goals, China is known for being stable and focusing on the overall situation, and this competition is no exception. However, the people at Argonne National Laboratory believe that China is not yet a threatening opponent. For 20 years, Japanese companies have been leaders in the field of global lithium-ion battery manufacturing, with a 43% share of the global lithium-ion battery market. South Korean companies have a 23% share. The United States is not considered a competitor in the eyes of some (not too many). Theoretically speaking, the current performance of lithium-ion batteries still has room to be improved by about one time. The United States not only has senior scientists in this field, but also has a huge market. Therefore, it can play a great potential.
A senior scientist at the Argonne laboratory said that when Minister Wan Gang visited the laboratory, he guessed their psychology, “How do we benefit from this visit?” The management of the laboratory paid special attention to the few words that Minister Wan Gang might reveal. , And they did not express too much except for being extremely polite. For example, Chamberlain mentioned in his speech that a group of German, Japanese, and South Korean companies-BASF, Panasonic, Samsung, and LG Chem-are using NMC to redesign their batteries. The energy that these companies get from their batteries is twice the energy that Chinese battery manufacturers get from their beloved lithium-iron-phosphorus compound. Chamberlain can be sure that Minister Wan Gang already knows this, so this comment is very candid. If Minister Wan Gang feels that this is a mockery of China’s strategy, he will show a corresponding expression, but in fact he does not. He attached great importance to this Argonne trip, listened to the history of the laboratory with all his attention, and carefully understood the important scientific research achievements of the laboratory.